Over the past year, I’ve been exploring scenario planning as part of the firm’s 2024 Research and Innovation Fellowship. This fellowship is a new initiative at Asakura Robinson, offering staff dedicated research time and a stipend to investigate an innovative topic that aligns with the firm’s mission and advances the fields of planning and design. I’m grateful to have been the first recipient of this fellowship and am excited to share some of my findings.
I chose scenario planning for my research topic because I wanted to think more strategically about the future. As a planner working on long-range projects such as comprehensive plans and vision frameworks, I aimed to develop a knowledge base for addressing complex challenges such as climate change, demographic shifts, and market volatility. I also saw scenario planning as a way to create more durable and actionable work products, because its iterative process engages diverse stakeholders and produces more robust planning strategies.
I took a comprehensive approach to my research, organizing it into three distinct phases. In the first phase, I focused on gaining a foundational understanding of scenario planning through a literature review and a 3-day intensive training session at the University of Michigan. In the second phase, I explored internal projects within the firm that had utilized scenario planning, gaining insights into how it had been applied in past initiatives. The final phase was more reflective, where I considered the next steps for deepening my involvement in scenario planning and advancing new projects.
Scenario planning is a strategic tool used in urban planning to help cities and regions better prepare for the future. The process involves developing scenarios based on demographic shifts, climate change, natural disasters, public health crises, and many other topics. By exploring these trends during the planning process, urban planners can better identify risks, opportunities, and more resilient strategies.
Scenario planning is a versatile tool and can fit within a broader planning process or work on its own as a stand-alone exercise. There are three major types of scenario planning: predictive, normative, and exploratory. Some projects might use a combination of these three types.
Predictive scenario planning relies on data and modeling to forecast a range of possible futures based on historical and projected trends. Using these models, the planning team develops contingency plans to prepare for various possible outcomes. This approach is similar to how scenario planning is applied in traditional comprehensive planning, such as with population projections and traffic modeling.
Normative scenario planning begins by identifying a desired end state, then backcasts to explore different paths to achieve that vision. The planning team selects actions that increase the likelihood of realizing the desired future. Methods for this approach can vary, also incorporating forecasting or modeling tools to shape and make more data-driven redevelopment scenarios.
Exploratory scenario planning imagines multiple possible futures- both desirable and undesirable- and provides a process for assessing how to prepare for uncertainties while working towards a guiding focal question. This approach is highly open ended and qualitative, often driven by discussion and consensus-building amongst a variety of stakeholders.
The training I attended focused heavily on exploratory scenario planning, also known as XSP. In recent years, the growing pace of change, uncertainty, and interconnected risks has made the XSP process especially valuable. It allows organizations to identify potential disruptions and opportunities early on, even if they cannot predict the exact trajectory of future events.
Steps of the XSP process:
One recent example I encountered is Plan Bay Area 2050, created by the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) and the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG). This comprehensive regional transportation and land use plan was shaped by an innovative scenario planning process called Horizon. Horizon employed both exploratory and normative scenario planning methods, identifying critical uncertainties, crafting scenario narratives, and developing strategies based on public engagement. Public input was gathered through interactive games that simulated potential urban futures, resulting in twelve scenarios later refined to the three most desirable futures for the Bay Area. These insights influenced Plan Bay Area 2050, encouraging a forward-thinking and adaptable approach to regional planning. While not all strategies were adopted, Horizon fostered inclusivity and open-minded visioning, guiding a more responsive planning process.
Asakura Robinson has extensive experience in scenario planning, having successfully executed a wide range of transformative projects across various scales and contexts. Notable examples include the Palm District Plan, Northeast Gateway Redevelopment Plan, and most recently the Right Down Broadway Plan. In these projects, our team developed comprehensive land use redevelopment scenarios for designated study areas, leveraging robust community and stakeholder engagement to identify and implement the most desirable vision for the city’s future. These efforts are part of a broader portfolio of scenario planning work that emphasizes innovative, community-driven strategies to guide sustainable growth and redevelopment.
There are many other exemplary scenario planning projects that I encountered when doing my research fellowship. I’ve included a list of additional case studies in the resources section at the end of this post.
Given the range of contemporary challenges facing urban planners, scenario planning is a valuable tool for navigating uncertainty and creating more resilient, long-lasting plans. It also helps build public trust and increase buy-in, given its open-ended nature that contrasts with the rigid, predetermined traditional planning methods. Additionally, scenario planning serves as an effective educational tool, raising awareness of local planning issues among the broader public. While there are many benefits, scenario planning is not without its limitations. Developing scenarios can be time-consuming and resource-intensive, requiring extensive data modeling, expert input, and stakeholder participation. This can make scenario planning costly and overly complicated, especially for smaller cities with limited budgets. Members of the public may find it difficult to engage directly in scenario planning or feel it lacks grounding in day-to-day life and decision making. Despite these limitations, I still think scenario planning is a useful tool for cities, especially when paired with projects or study areas dealing with a lot of uncertainty.
Looking ahead, I’m excited to continue exploring scenario planning both personally and professionally. I’m particularly eager to strategize how we can integrate XSP processes into our work at Asakura Robinson, especially in climate action and resilience planning. Additionally, I look forward to sharing my research further with colleagues across the firm and discovering how scenario planning can benefit other teams, including the Landscape Architecture Studio, Urban Design Studio, and the User Experience (UX) and Data Innovation group.
Written by Mollie Hinderaker, AICP
Case Studies:
Atlanta Regional Commission Regional Comprehensive Plan 2016
Engaging the Future: Baltimore-Washington 2040
Denver 2040 Comprehensive Plan
DVRCP Dispatches from Alternative Futures
Resources:
“An Overview of Scenario Approaches: A Guide for Urban Design and Planning” Jaoude et al (2022)
“Exploratory Scenario Planning: How to Navigate an Uncertain Future”. Jeremy Stapleton. Lincoln Institute Policy Brief (2020)
“How to Design Your Scenario Planning Process” Janae Futrell. APA PAS Memo (2019)
“How to Use Exploratory Scenario Planning (XSP): Navigating an Uncertain Future”. Jeremy Stapleton. Lincoln Institute Policy Focus Report. (2020)
“Inclusive Futures: A systematic Review of Social Equity in Scenario Planning” Ayambire and Moos (2024)
“Scenario planning for urban planners: towards a practitioner’s guide” Chakraborty and McMillan (2015)